The Weakest Altcoin Rally in Years: But That Could Change Fast
Current weakness in mid- and small-cap tokens versus Bitcoin points to an undeveloped altseason stage with substantial growth opportunities still ahead.
Market data indicates that the much-anticipated altseason has yet to begin truly.
A comparison of Bitcoin, large-cap (top 20) altcoins, and mid-to-small-cap tokens shows the weakest altcoin performance of the current cycle.
Altcoins Struggle to Match Bitcoin’s Dominance
In its latest analysis, CryptoQuant said that the most significant surge resembling a “true” altseason occurred in early 2024, when mid- and small-cap assets briefly outperformed Bitcoin. A second phase emerged in late 2024 and early 2025, though Bitcoin retained dominance.
Current trends reveal only a mild altcoin reaction, which is far less pronounced than earlier phases. The analysis indicates that this could mark the very early stages of a broader altcoin rally, but add that investors may need patience before a stronger rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins takes hold.
In a separate observation, Swissblock’s Altcoin Vector found that a renewed acceleration in the altcoin market could be underway, driven largely by Ethereum’s recent strength. Its analysis said that the broader altcoin market often moves in tandem with the ETH/BTC pair, which has rallied about 75% since its May lows and recently broken out of a downtrend. Ethereum is described as the “tip of the spear,” which is leading this potential shift.
According to the tweet, altcoins have already begun aligning with ETH’s breakout, and the next significant move could occur once ETH/BTC clears a key resistance level of 0.035, which may trigger a “Positive Impulse” across the market.
Cycle Won’t Finish Without Altseason
A crypto analyst said there are early signs that an altseason may be forming. However, it is still far from complete. Describing altseason as a crucial phase of the market cycle, the analyst argued that the current cycle will not end without it.
While Bitcoin has dominated most of the recent gains, the analyst believes altcoins could deliver significant surprises once they gain momentum and will capture the market’s full attention.
For now, however, the altcoin market remains in the background, and the shift toward a true altseason has yet to materialize in any meaningful way.
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